Turkish Crop Failure

29/04/14

We need to update you on the very latest news coming out of Turkey regarding a potential crop disaster for Apricots and Hazelnuts.

Due to higher than average temperatures in January and February the flowers of these plants bloomed earlier than usual.
In the final week of March severe frosts of -12 degrees ran over three consecutive nights. The effect has been almost catastrophic, especially in areas of higher altitudes.
It is reckoned that up to 80% of the Apricot crop has been lost. Estimates given are a crop size for 2014 of 20,000 tonnes compared to the 120,000 of 2013. Shippers are already defaulting to European traders. What we will probably see is growers holding on to stock over the summer, the price will rise and rise and many people are going to be disappointed at the lack of supply. Other origins such as South Africa and the USA do not really have anything like the Turkish crop to help the supply out.
 As for Hazelnuts, an average crop size in Turkey would be around 630,000 metric tonnes, this years is being talked at well under 400,000. We will have to see if other origins come in the marketplace.
In short, expect prices to literally rocket, double current prices and you will get the picture. It is I am afraid the old story of supply and demand. Infinity have I am happy to say contracts with various suppliers, so I am confident that we can keep deliveries to you going for the foreseeable future, albeit at a price. Be prepared for a tough year ahead.
 
Scott Muir
 
Commodity Buyer